We call this blog Unintended Consequences because politicians so regularly catalyze events that are completely predictable yet are totally unanticipated. The current administration should get a doctorate in Unintended Consequences. Don’t get me started on the border, for goodness’ sake.
What happens when the President of the United States says that it will be ok if there is a minor incursion into the Ukraine by Russia? Russia goes into Ukraine.
What happens when the United States imposes sanctions on an authoritarian regime? The citizens suffer and the elites soldier on. Just ask the Iranians, the Cubans, the Iraqis, the Venezuelans, the Nicaraguans, the Syrians and now the Russians. None of these people get to pick their rulers, so who cares if the people are frustrated with them? Certainly not the rulers. In other words, sanctions produce nothing.
What happens when the Russians invade a country and commit war crimes? When they did it in Afghanistan, Syria, Chechnya, Georgia and now Ukraine the world stood by and allowed it, ultimately inviting Putin back to the G-20 and the table of civilized nations. So, nothing.
What happens when the Russians commit murder of their political opponents on Western soil and imprison their opponents on Russian soil without cause? Nothing.
What happens when some states or countries impose massive hardship via lockdowns and mandates without improving Covid outcomes and unleash all kinds of unintended harms including unemployment, depression, drug addiction, suicide, un-treated diseases and developmental delays in a generation of children? Nothing.
What happens when you let a madman rape and murder tens of thousands of people because he has nuclear weapons? Nothing. Do you think that he will stop raping and murdering in the future - he will still have the nuclear weapons.
What do you do when you have the opportunity to DEFEAT said mass rapist/murderer? Apparently, Nothing.
Is there anything Putin can do that will galvanize us to act? Is there any Red Line (a real one, not a fake Obama one)?
There is quote from President Clinton that has been widely circulated that references the Rwandan genocide. His thinking during the conflict was a lot like ours now. When he had the opportunity to consider the fecklessness of our response, he had a change of heart.
“The international community must bear its share of responsibility of this tragedy…We did not act quickly enough after the killing began…We did not call these crimes by their rightful name: genocide. We cannot change the past, but we can and must do everything in our power to …build a future without fear, and full of hope. We owe to those who died and those who survived…to increase our vigilance and strengthen our stand against those who would commit such atrocities in the future…”