This piece represents just a small slice of what we are all feeling. Humans are uniquely sensitive to derivatives vs. absolutes. We feel good when things are getting better and we feel bad when they are getting worse. And boy, do I feel bad.
Safety. The crime statistics in our cities have been rising over the past several years as the number and willingness to engage of our police have been in steady decline. How much do statistics understate the real change? Without a report, and most of us do not see the point in calling the cops anymore, there is no statistic.
Quality of our Leaders. Donald Trump and Joe Biden, our last two Presidents, are absolutely awful human beings. Each believes that the rules under which the rest of us live do not apply to them. Trump was a very effective President from a policy perspective, but the leader’s job transcends unemployment rates and GDP growth and on the general leadership of the country Trump got an F, especially when he failed to show up when we needed him to quell the events of January 6th. Biden is a political hack and a grifter whose mental acuity was never impressive and who, in a state of physical and mental decline, represents the general direction of our country beautifully.
Our Children. In her new book, Jean Twenge polled high school students just before the beginning of the Pandemic Lockdowns. In response to the question - “Do you enjoy life?” - 48.9% said “No”. From 1991-2014, before the age of social media took hold, the range of “No” responses to that question ranged between 20 and 25%. And this is all BEFORE we imposed insane restrictions on children for whom the Covid virus offered virtually no risk, and on whom the lockdowns brought many serious issues.
Cities. The Commercial Vacancy rate in Manhattan, according to Cushman and Wakefield is 22.2% as of Q1 2023. From 2012 to 2022, that rate averaged 12%. And the current vacancy rates underestimate the real lack of energy and activity suffered in our downtowns by employees who no longer show up, even if their employers continue to pay the rent.
Film. In 2022, the top 10 grossing films were all part of series. Not one was originally conceived as a stand-alone property. Five were based on comic books, the rest were sequels. Risk-taking and the production of thoughtful art are dead.
Health. According to the CDC, the percentage of Americans who are obese grew from 30.5% in 2000 to 41.9% in 2020. And, apparently, telling people who were at increased risk from COVID to lose weight was not an option.
Trust in our Media. When polled by Gallup about their trust in our TV and Newspaper media in 2022, 16% of Americans said they have either a Great Deal or Quite a Lot of Trust in newspapers and 11% felt that way about TV news. The recent highs for those responses were 51% with respect to newspapers in 1979 and 46% with respect to TV in 1993.
Financial Institutions. In the weeks following the Twitter-led run on Silicon Valley Bank, depositors moved over $300 Billion from the banking system into money market funds. And US investors led a 50% increase in the price of Bitcoin over two weeks. We are very close to a permanent run on deposits that will cause our too big to fail financial institutions to become wards of the state.
Gun Violence. According to the FBI, there were 61 active shooter incidents in 2021. Over the seven-year period from 2000 to 2006, there were a total of 60.
Immigration. According to US CBP there were nearly as many Enforcement Actions at our Southern Border (2.8mm) in 2022 as there were from 2017-2020 in total (3mm).
What are the bright spots? Please somebody tell me something that should make me optimistic that better days are ahead.
I was walking in Central Park with our dog early yesterday morning, shortly after sunrise and I was struck by the notion that one hour earlier, in the dark, I would not have remotely considered taking the same stroll. Visibility is what makes us safe. Our efforts as citizens must be redoubled in the service of transparency, and it’s first cousin - accountability.